Probability
A World of Probabilities
Probability is a fundamental concept in mathematics and statistics that quantifies the likelihood of an event happening. It is a numerical measure that ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates that the event is impossible, and 1 indicates that the event is certain to occur. Events with probabilities between 0 and 1 represent varying degrees of likelihood.
Deterministic vs Probabilistic
Thinking in terms of probabilities requires experience and practice, but probabilistic thinking is essential for social scientists, and it can be very valuable for life!
For example, someone with a determinist perspective may ask if the food at Eich is "good" or "bad." On the other hand, someone taking a probabilistic perspective may ask how frequently the food at Eich is good.
In this class, you should practice thinking probabilistically. As such, you will need to be careful about language and how you communicate your findings. You should also be concious about this distinction when reading news articles about scientific finding!!
Deterministic Weather
It's going to be sunny on Sunday.
Let's go to the beach! There's no need to bring an umbrella!!
Probabilistic Weather
There's a small chance of rain on Sunday.
We should go to the beach, but we should consider packing an umbrella.